20
Nov

Combining technical and financial analysis for better investing

Financial analysis is the analysis of company and market financials as we usually refer to it, which relies essentially on existing financial information such as annual reports, and the analysis of financial ratios and their comparison with competitors and sector benchmarks.

I applied financial analysis (albeit not rigorously) to stock market investing but was disappointed with the result. Rational investors firmly believe that stock prices closely reflect the (future) financial condition of the company. Unfortunately, this is not true. This assumption falls particularly short for analyzing short term stock price fluctuations.

This is where technical analysis comes into play. By contrast with financial analysis, technical analysis tries to uncover patterns in stock prices without assuming that investor behave rationally and that all relevant information is available (i.e. "perfect market" assumption). In essence, technical analysis tends more toward psychology than finance. This makes sense because most investors do not behave rationally. The effect of news, good or bad, and more importantly herd behavior such as the bandwagon effect can move the stock prices very far (above or under) from the values resulting from financial analysis. Technical analysis tries to anticipate the irrational behavior of investors when they are exposed to news, market "feeling", or any other perception that is not grounded in finance.

We can picture the long-term stock price as following the financial analysis curve and the short-term stock prices following the technical analysis along the financial analysis curve. The questions that remain are what do long-term and short-term mean, and which analysis technique weighs more according to the stock and the market. In immature markets such as China, and emotional times such as now, we might argue that technical analysis makes more sense than financial analysis.

In other words: stop focusing on numbers only, apply some behavioral psychology!


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1 comment

Comment from: Maggie [Visitor] Email
Good summary of the two different investment concepts! But one point that arouses my attention is your overweight of "technical analysis" for Chinese stock market investment. Yes, it's immature and more fluctuant compared to European or American market. But I believe that the more fluctuant the market is, the more important it is to be able to apply "financial analysis" while being aware that the cause of the fluctuation is irrational behavior through "technical analysis". Actually, no matter for long-term or short-term investment, it's always better to apply the combination of both concepts at the same time. It's the only way to keep yourself a clear mind and understand which stocks are only valuable for short-term investment and which else are profitable in the long run.
11/25/07 @ 12:30

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